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The first fiscal news meekly announced by the "new" Tajik government after last Saturday’s Cabinet Plus ca Change was not the one to please people’s ears: the country’s growing appetite for external debt has added up to a more fearsome cumulative balance of payments deficit. With the energy policy on the ropes, the government made public the appalling figure of around 1.12 billion dollars of the country’s foreign debt.

According to Timurali Afganov, head of the Finance Ministry's main department for government debt and financial assets, the foreign debt increased 29.3% in 2007 and now constitutes 30.2% of the country’s GDP. Given that Tajikistan’s debt in 2006 was estimated around 829 million dollars, the debt accumulation speed looks quite impressive.

Some still remember Tajik Deputy Finance Minister Shavkat Sahibov’s joyful announcement in April 2006 about 8.5 percent fall in the country’s external debt. Then Tajikistan had repaid over 76 million dollars to its creditors. However, this time merely $44.2 million has been put aside for debt repayment.

"The debt increased largely due to 11 loan agreements worth $154.3 million signed in 2007", RIA Novosti quotes Timurali Afganov. Large government dissaving on pompous celebrations throughout the year presumably has not been counted in.

For a nation with estimated $1,600 GDP (per capita) as of 2007 it would be a real nightmare if the creditors would choose to give Tajikistan rough justice and demand their money back within a strictly-set timetable. There is no doubt that even creditors with deep pockets will have to say "no", if Tajikistan proves incapable to lessen its external debt burden. The government’s regressive capability in debt repayment is shown in the estimated figures below:

Tajikistan’s external debt:

Mid-2001: more than US$1.2 billion

2002: US$1 billion (Russia writes off $250 million)

2003: US$989.5 million

2004: US$888 million

2005: US$1.09 million

2006: US$829 million

2007: US$1 billion 119, 9 million

That means the country is back to mid-2001. At this pace of debt-seeking Tajikistan might reach the point of no return.

It is still obscure where Rahmon’s flight of fancy will take the country in future, but Tajikistan’s main creditors will hardly give credit to his ambitious plans in energy sector if their impact is not felt in the country. This winter demonstrated the country’s utmost disability to cope with an energy emergency. The crisis added on the volume of the country’s debt by making it import electricity with a fivefold interest payback (as reported by Kyrgyz and Kazakh agencies, while Barq-i Tajik’s Tuesday announcement slightly contradicts the Kyrgyz Premier’s statement).

Rahmon’s government has tried to shift the burden on people’s shoulders by raising electricity prices to repay debt owed to the World Bank (WB). However, the institution didn’t pull any punches and clarified in its 15 January press statement that WB had not advocated the Tajik authorities to do so. On the contrary, it says, WB encourages "the Tajikistan authorities to put in place the financing arrangements to ensure services are improved, together with a social protection scheme that supports the poorest and neediest families in meeting their electricity bills."

Perhaps Dushanbe has misunderstood WB. But this kind of misunderstandings usually brings about misfortunes.