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Ironically, Tajikistan is well-endowed with hydro-energy resources and has a greater power generating capacity than any other country in the region. Its energy production potential estimate varies from 300 million to 527 million kWh of electricity per annum. Numerous obstacles do not allow Tajikistan to exploit its unique hydroelectricity potential.

During his 2-day visit President Rahmon will meet his Iranian counterpart Mahmud Ahmadinejad and other senior officials to discuss ways of accelerating implementation of joint development projects, particularly construction of Santuda-2 power plant in south of Tajikistan, IRNA reports.

The two countries signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Sangtuda-2 construction in June 2005 and construction operations on the Vakhsh River officially commenced on 20 January 2006. The $182-million project financed mainly by Iran is supposed to be launched by 2009. But last Thursday Hamrahkhan Zarifi, the Tajik Foreign Minister, called for swift completion of the power plant.

If built, Sangtuda-2 with 220 MW of capacity will be operating in parallel with Sangtuda-1 (being built by Russia). It will be under a 10-year Iranian loan with a five-percent interest rate and Tajikistan will own only 2% of it, with the remainder belonging to Iran.

All three large hydro-power projects of Tajikistan (Ragun, Sangtuda-1 and Sangtuda-2) together with existing giant plants (Narak, Baipaza) and several smaller power stations are located on the Vakhsh River in south of the country. By implementing all these projects Tajikistan will gain the upper hand over Uzbekistan in hydro-energy policy and the river will be under Dushanbe's control providing it with leverage against Tashkent. The river is a major tributary of Amu Darya - one of the two great rivers that flow down into Uzbekistan.

Tashkent's reaction to Tajikistan's ambitious hydro-energy projects has been a little more than nervous. Ostensibly, it succeeded to stall one of them in 2006. Instead of the projected 335-meter-high dam in Ragun, Russian RusAl suggested building a 280-meter-high one. The suggestion followed a meeting between Oleg Derepaska, the head of the conglomerate, with President Islam Karimov of Uzbekistan. Tashkent repenting over its prior disloyalty to Moscow was tilting back to the Kremlin and Russia warmed up to Karimov again instantly. The contract was summarily annulled.

Ragun incident justified Tajikistan's fear of being ditched by Russia in the aftermath of the Andijan massacre that marked Tashkent's geopolitical U-turn. Despite repetitive assurances from Moscow, it could not be doubted that a stronger Uzbekistan would win the Kremlin's love and encroach on Dushanbe's close relations with Moscow.

Perhaps light dawned on Rahmon when he saw Wednesday's emotional meeting between a moved Putin and a touchy-feely Karimov in Moscow. The president of Uzbekistan looked upset over Putin's forthcoming departure from the Kremlin and spoke in a trembling voice, reports Izvestiya. Karimov's distress could be understood: Putin has helped him to keep his hand steady on the tiller and now he has to predict how to please Putin's successor in order to employ his authority to maintain Tashkent's regional interests.

Some observers in Dushanbe believe that Rahmon's visit to Tehran has been prompted by Karimov's one to Moscow. They say, after spoiling his relationship with the White Tsar he could not gladden and move him in the same way as Karimov did. Now he is clinging on another powerful partner - Iran. First of all, for ridding him of his energy headache; secondly, for having a talk with Putin and sharing Rahmon's concerns with him. After all, somebody has to finish off the Ragun hydroelectric plant. Furthermore, Rahmon must have overheard circulating rumours about the possible outcome of Russia's growing dislike for him that suggest even his forthcoming dismissal.